UDK: 32:33:34

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30932/2500-1868-2026-59-3-16

Diana S. Timoshenko - Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher, Department for Country Studies, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IE RAS), Moscow, Russia

Abstract. The current paper has presented the study of the legal and economic aspects of ensuring the security of maritime routes and maritime transport in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and the struggle by the nations of “Collective West” to project military power through control over strategic maritime routes in the Baltic-Scandinavian Macroregion (hereinafter referred to as the BSM). The purpose of the study was to develop methodological recommendations to prevent and minimize potential risks to Russian shipping and maritime transport as a key sector of the Russian economy and an instrument of national geopolitics, based on an analysis of current changes in the geopolitical situation in the Baltic region. Based on the system analysis of the fundamental principles of state management of the transport economy and the legal regulation of sectoral transport markets at the macro and meso levels, as well as statements by the nations of “Collective West” that deliberately distort the rational interpretation of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, thereby directly infringing upon Russia’s sovereign rights, there has been proposed a balanced review and adjustment of the Convention in light of the preventive interpretation of its environmental provisions by NATO member states. There have been outlined existing and potential threats to the freedom of navigation for Russia and its partners in the BSM, including the use of “gray zone” tactics and the imposition of blockades and embargoes. Using extrapolation, there have been presented possible scenarios for the future escalation of confrontation between the “Collective West” and the Russian Federation in the region. According to the study results there have been concluded and recommended to strengthen convoy escort operations to prevent acts of sabotage against vessels traveling to and from Russian ports.

The work has been fulfilled within the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Research theme FMZS-2024-0013 “System Analysis of Economic and Political Risks and Opportunities in the Baltic-Scandinavian Macroregion”.

Keywords: Baltic-Scandinavian Macroregion; Baltic Sea; maritime law; Danish Straits; freedom of navigation; cruising; “gray zone” methods.

References:

1. Timoshenko, D. S. Diversii protiv kriticheskoy podvodnoy infrastruktury na Baltike [Sabotage against critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic] / D. S. Timoshenko // Nauchno-analiticheskiy vestnik Instituta Yevropy RAN. — 2025. — № 2(44). — S. 99―112. — DOI 10.15211/vestnikieran2202599112. EDN WMEGTJ
2. Cucinschi, Alexandru. The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: A Legal Perspective. 02.05.2026. / Alexandru Cucinschi // The Euro-Atlantic Resilience Centre. URL: https://e-arc.ro/en/2026/05/02/the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-a-legal-perspective-2/.
3. Bartosh, A. A. «Serye zony» kak klyuchevoy element sovremennogo operatsionnogo prostranstva gibridnoy voyny [“Gray Zones” as a key element of the modern operational space of hybrid war] / A. A. Bartosh // Voyennaya mysl'. — 2021. — № 2. — S. 6―19. EDN EPVRMV.
4. Morris LJ, Mazarr MJ, et al. Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War. RAND Corporation; 2019. DOI: 10.7249/RR2942.

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Timoshenko D.S. Threats to maritime transport security in the Baltic-Scandinavian Macroregion: from cruising to blockade // Transport law and security. 2026; (3(59)):189―200.